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Thursday, January 11, 2007

Alcoa's 4Q seen marked by higher aluminium prices, partly offset by dollar weakness

Aluminium producer Alcoa Inc. reports earnings for the fourth quarter on Tuesday, Jan. 9. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.

OVERVIEW: Pittsburgh-based Alcoa is the first of the Dow Jones Industrials to report results. The release of Alcoa's quarterly financial report traditionally marks the start of earnings season.

Alcoa announced a plan in November to cut 6,700 jobs to streamline its cost structure. Although the restructuring plan is ultimately expected to save the company $125 million annually before taxes, Alcoa expects to book charges of $375 million to $425 million in the fourth quarter related to the program.

The job cuts represent about 5 percent of Alcoa's 129,000 employees in 44 countries.

In the aluminium spot market, prices averaged $1.18 a pound in the fourth quarter, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Liinamaa – an increase from the $1.13 average price in the third quarter.

However, the price of alumina – the raw material used to make aluminium – fell sharply during the quarter. Alcoa is a major producer of alumina.

"The drop in the spot market can be attributed to the ramp up of alumina production in China, leading to reduced spot demand throughout the world market," said Bank of America analyst Kuni M. Chen, in a report. Lower alumina prices could hurt Alcoa's earnings, he said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar lost ground against other major currencies in the fourth quarter and suffered a particularly sharp decline against the euro. Alcoa produces its products globally, and a weaker dollar made local costs in Europe and Australia more expensive for the company

BY THE NUMBERS: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast earnings of 65 cents per share on sales of $7.63 billion.

ANALYST TAKE: Morgan Stanley's Liinamaa cut his fourth-quarter earnings estimate for the company, despite stronger-than-expected aluminium prices, citing the dollar's weakness during the period and a strike at an engineered products plant. Liinamaa also said the automotive sector in North America continued its downward spiral faster than expected, which could hurt Alcoa's earnings.