Market demand for products seen edging downward in fiscal '99

TOKYO -- Japanese market demand for aluminum products, including: rolled, cast, die-cast, forged and other products, is expected to edge downward by 0.3 percent in fiscal 1999 to 3,713,000 tonnes from an estimated 3,725,400 tonnes in the fiscal year just ended, according to the latest forecast by the Japan Aluminium Federation.

Although the decrease predicted for the year ending March 31, 2000, would be the third consecutive annual decline, it would be much smaller than the 9.5-percent fall in fiscal 1998 from 4,115,000 tonnes the previous year.
Demand for rolled products in fiscal 1999 is forecast to total 2,041,600 tonnes--up 0.7 percent from 2,027,600 tonnes the previous year-- comprising 1,013,500 tonnes of flat-rolled products (up 0.8 percent from 1,005,900 tonnes) and 1,028,100 tonnes of extrusions (up 0.6 percent from 1,021,700 tonnes.

Demand for cast products is anticipated to be 356,500 tonnes, down 1.4 percent from 361,600 tonnes, comprising 323,700 tonnes for automotive use (down 1.3 percent from 328,000 tonnes in fiscal 1998) and 32,800 tonnes for other uses (down 2.4 percent from 33,600 tonnes), according to the Japanese federation.

Demand for die-cast products in fiscal 1999 is expected to total 673,100 tonnes, down 1.3 percent from 681,900 tonnes--505,700 tonnes for automobiles (down 1 percent from 510,600 tonnes), 42,200 tonnes for motorcycles (down 3 percent from 43,500 tonnes) and 125,200 tonnes for other uses (down 2 percent from 127,800 tonnes).
Demand for other products include forgings, 22,900 tonnes (down 0.9 percent from 23,100 tonnes); electric wire, 46,000 tonnes (down 21.1 percent from 58,300 tonnes); steel-making, 108,100 tonnes (down 2.2 percent from 110,500 tonnes); powder, 14,500 tonnes (unchanged); and others, 32,400 tonnes (down 0.9 percent from 32,700 tonnes).

Imported products are expected to remain unchanged at 129,800 tonnes, while exports are forecast to increase 0.9 percent to 288,100 tonnes from 285,400 tonnes.

The Japanese economy is expected to enter a recovery phase in fiscal 1999, according to the federation, as a result of the government's economy-buoying program. "But the pace of the business recovery is expected to be very slow and gradual," the federation said, noting that most research institutes were predicting a negative growth for the Japanese economy in fiscal 1999.

For rolled products, the federation noted, demand for can stock and other aluminum products in the food sector is likely to remain flat, but there will be a slight increase in demand from the foil, consumer electrical equipment and machinery and automobile industries, with an overall increase in demand of 0.8 percent.

The automobile industry, the largest user of cast and die-cast aluminum products, is likely to continue to increase its use of aluminum. But, the federation noted, auto production will remain stagnant, and as a result demand for castings is likely to go down 1.4 percent and die castings by 1.3 percent.