NEW YORK -- Early peeks into the U.S. aluminum industry's new business and shipment tallies in the current quarter underscore Alcan Aluminium Ltd.'s recent assessment that fourth-quarter business levels and results were falling below general expectations and Alcoa Inc.'s earlier warnings about its third-and fourth-quarter performance.

The Washington-based Aluminum Associations public tally of November bookings and October shipments is out yet, but the picture painted by early December reports of the trade groups clients on Wall Street and elsewhere showed sharp declines in key market areas.

Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Global Research & Economics group said in a report dated Dec. 14 that the industry's bookings of aluminum sheet, extrusions and other mill products "remained weak during November" and shipment volume remained weak in October.

The company's aluminum industry analyst, Dan Roling, who a week earlier had determined "aluminum fundamentals remain healthy and supportive of higher prices once the soft economic landing is confirmed," said the long downtrend in bookings "appears to have bottomed out (but) a clear trend is not discernable."

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. analyst Wayne Atwell said in a report dated Dec. 13 that "aluminum fundamentals are deteriorating in the U.S., with aluminum orders off seven of the last eight months and November down 11 percent vs. the year earlier."

Atwell also said the U.S. aluminum industry's mill product shipments "are down six of the last seven months and declined 4.6 percent in October vs. the year earlier."